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8/25/2008 8:19:27 AM
Our Thoughts for Monday, August 25th
The markets closed the week on a strong note as a strong push out of the market open retraced 50% before rallying back to highs by the end of the day. The strong day pushed the broader averages back to the middle/upper portion of their trading ranges. Unfortunately a lack of volume again suggests that there is no conviction in the bulls but there is little conviction so far in the selling too. We should get a better idea on volume following Labor day but until we do, my bias is still to the upside until we break down from the ascending wedges on the DOW and S&P.
However, consecutive up-days to counter consecutive down days, I would still expect a choppy and grinding effect in the markets. In fact Monday might very well bring us some retracement, although the model is not that clear. We could push higher again today and then I might look for us to sell-off on Tuesday but the model has been a countermove following back to back directional days so I will lean to the downside today. Good trading and we will talk to you soon.
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Commentary